Cotton in Sindh has, for the time being, shown encouraging production figures during the initial picking of the crop this season. Sindh’s cotton production has so far outpaced Punjab’s, according to figures shared by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA).
According to the PCGA’s Aug 15 report, 658,847 bales were produced in Sindh, compared with 483,091 bales during the corresponding period last year. Punjab’s production stood at 379,211 bales, against 369,550 bales in the same period last year.
Pakistan’s total cotton production on Aug 15 stood at 1.02 million bales, against 839,987 bales on the same date last year, indicating a 25 per cent increase so far. Punjab’s factories were also reportedly receiving seed cotton supplies from nearby districts in Sindh.
However, it remains to be seen whether this surge — particularly in Sindh — will prove sustainable, given the unending challenges facing the cotton crop. Taking the increase as a sign of cotton’s revival may be premature, as the crop in Sindh remains highly vulnerable to climate change, excessive rainfall and temperature variations. Climate-driven shocks can hit cotton quickly and severely.
The province usually has limited water in March and April, but better flows recently have resulted in higher arrivals of phutti in factories so far this year
Sindh’s cotton production, according to the provincial agriculture department’s figures, was 2.75m bales in FY26 and 2.82m bales in FY25. It stood at 3.88m bales in FY24, while production before that hovered between 1.59m and 1.86m bales, according to the department. The province has been unable to achieve its sowing target of 630,000ha over the past several years. In FY26, the acreage stood at 563,000ha. This year’s acreage figures were being finalised by the department.
Ginners believe cotton production remains in dire straits in the country for a variety of reasons. They, however, noted that early cotton production in Sindh was not being reported accurately. According to them, ginners tend to avoid sharing actual production figures due to taxation concerns, so underreporting cannot be ruled out.
“For non-filers, a 14pc tax is being charged on oilcake’s sales, a byproduct of cotton. Oilcake is sold as buffalo feed, and in this sector, livestock and cattle pen owners remain mostly unregistered with respect to compliance with taxation laws; therefore, actual sales remain undocumented. “So, I can say cotton production in Sindh this year is more than what is reported to PCGA by ginners”, said a cotton ginner.
He believed that cotton production in Sindh’s lower region remained intact while upper Sindh’s area was witnessing encroachment by sugarcane in cotton-growing areas like Ghotki, a left bank district, where another factory has lately started functioning. Five sugar factories were already working in the same district.
Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) president Mahmood Nawaz Shah pointed out that, compared with other crops, cotton is still not a preferred crop among growers. It has become susceptible to changing weather patterns, such as excessive rain, temperature variability, and other climate-related shocks that can affect it. “Crops like sugarcane and paddy tend to be more climate-resilient than cotton,” he said.
He asserted that water availability during early Kharif was another major challenge. These flows often elude Sindh, the tail-end province, during early cultivation of crops. Early sowing of cotton was common in lower Sindh, which was why much of the successful cotton crop was planted in late February or early March.
“Sindh normally remains deficient in water in March and April, but this year flows remained available during these months, resulting in better arrivals of phutti at factories from early-sown cotton. Thus, the current surge in cotton production may not be sustainable in coming years,” he said.
Growers also tend to link cotton cultivation decisions to their experience with sugarcane prices in the previous season. This encourages them to continue sowing cotton, unlike in Punjab, where growers have more options to switch to other crops because of better water availability.
Cotton’s link with sugarcane is evident. For the last two years, the Sindh government has not fixed the price of sugarcane. The last indicative price, Rs425 per 40kg, was notified in FY24. Price fixation was subsequently discontinued due to conditions set by the International Monetary Fund. The Sindh agriculture research department had recommended a price of Rs545 per 40kg, but it was not fixed for 2025-26, while growers’ bodies had been demanding Rs600 per 40kg.
Ginners foresee a 25pc countrywide increase in phutti production this season and opined that more bales could be produced in Sindh in 2026 than last year. PCGA central chairman Sham Lal Deewan noted Sindh was likely to have 3.4m-3.5m bales in the FY27 season.
He concurred with growers’ view that farmers in Sindh were cultivating cotton because they had fewer options for crop diversification. Since water shortages usually affect early sowing in Sindh, farmers, after harvesting wheat or mustard, often turn to cotton, which requires comparatively less water than paddy or sugarcane.
“The situation is different in Punjab, where farmers not only have access to better and timely irrigation water supplies but also have sweet groundwater reserves. Punjab’s growers can therefore easily diversify their crops and grow multiple corn crops. Besides, they grow maize and paddy as well, so cotton acreage is shrinking more in Punjab than in Sindh,” he contended.
Former Chairman Pakistan Agricultural Research Council Dr Yusuf Zafar remained unimpressed by the increase in cotton production, pleading that the initial higher flush is transient and bound to flatten in the middle and at the end of the season, ie, September and October.
The writer is a dawn staffer
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 24th, 2026